Shelter Six:  GDP Forecasts Solid for U.S. but Down in Europe

1. Although the 2019 forecast for U.S. GDP remains around 2.5%, global GDP has emerged as a key economic concern early in the new year.

2. Last week, 2019 GDP forecasts were sharply reduced for Europe (1.9% to 1.3%), Germany (1.8% to 1.1%), and the UK (1.7% to 1.2%).

3. A major concern over the next month will be ongoing trade negotiations with China, which appear to be progressing very slowly.  U.S. tariffs are set to increase again on March 1.

4. Another major concern is the British exit from the EU (Brexit), which is scheduled to occur on March 31 and the terms of the departure still have not been finalized.

5. Encouraging news to report, Fannie Mae’s January National Housing Survey showed more people believe it is a good time to buy a home.

6. The survey showed home buyer purchase sentiment rebounding nicely after a drop in December as respondents reported higher incomes and less concern about job loss.

Rate Update

Mortgage rates trickled down a little last week and are now lower than the same date a year ago for the first time since early 2018 with the Conventional 30 Year Fixed-Rate now below 4.5% for the best-qualified borrowers.

This Week

The JOLTS Report is due out on Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, and Retail Sales on Thursday.

February 11, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

About James

James A. Williamson is currently the Sr VP of Sales Development for Shelter Lending Services (formerly Fairfield Mortgage). James joined Shelter in 1994 and was the company's top Loan Officer in GA for 20 straight years helping over 2500 families finance their homes. James now oversees an incredible group of Loan Officers in Atlanta while further building Shelter's Atlanta business.

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