Shelter Six: Strong Economic Data Overshadows Weak Jobs Report

January 11, 2021 by · Leave a Comment 

The economy lost 140K jobs in December. This was more than expected as 75K jobs had been expected to be gained.

The Unemployment Rate remained at a flat 6.7%.

Average Hourly Earnings rose .8% from November to an impressive 5.1% higher than a year ago.

The ISM National Manufacturing Index jumped to 60.7 in December, well above the consensus forecast of 56.5, and to the highest level since August 2018.

The ISM National Services Index rose to 57.2, well above the consensus forecast of 54.5, and near the levels seen early in the year prior to the pandemic. Readings above 50 indicate that the sector is expanding.

MBA Forbearance figures remained at 5.53% of all loans, as of Dec 27 (they peaked at 8.55% on June 7). This represents about 2.7M loans actively in forbearance.

Rate Update

Mortgage rates pushed up .125% last week but, with no changes to the Fed’s bond purchase program in sight, rates are expected to stay near low levels in 2021.

This Week

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will come out on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Friday.