Shelter Six:  Trade Tensions with China Actually Good for Rates

May 13, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

Trade tensions with China escalated at the end of last week with the U.S. more than doubling a tariff on Chinese imports. China retaliated this morning by increasing tariffs on U.S. imports, and the result was a huge drop in the stock market. Trade restrictions reduce the outlook for inflation, so any escalation in a […]

Shelter Six:  Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged

May 6, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

As expected, the Federal Reserve made no change to the Fed Funds Rate last week. Inflation continues to run below the Fed’s target of 2%, which has stirred increased expectations that the Fed might actually cut rates before the year is out. Fed Chair Powell addressed this speculation, however, by stating that Fed officials “don’t […]

Shelter Six:  1st Quarter GDP Much Stronger Than Expected

April 29, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

1st Quarter GDP was up an astounding 3.2%, much stronger than expected and significantly higher than the 4th Quarter’s 2.2%. In fact, this was the best 1st Quarter since 2015, and came despite the government shutdown and severe weather across the country. March Existing Home Sales were disappointing and 5% lower than a year ago. […]

Shelter Six:  Retail Sales Surge

April 22, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

March Retail Sales jumped a whopping 1.6% from February, which was far greater than forecasted and the largest monthly increase since 2017. Retail Sales had actually declined slightly in February, so the March figures were particularly impressive. The reason for the wide swings is probably mostly attributed to the government shutdown and the unusual volatility […]

Shelter Six:  Home Buying and Selling Optimism Explodes

April 15, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

The weather warms up, spring begins to bloom, and Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey shoots up a solid 7% on the buying side and 13% on the selling side in March. After a winter of relative consumer pessimism, Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index hit a low-point in December and had risen only slightly since. […]

Shelter Six:  Economy Adds 196K Jobs in March

April 8, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

A slowdown in the pace of wage growth offset stronger than expected job gains in Friday’s key Employment report, and the net impact to rates was small. After rising steadily for the last several months, average hourly earnings unexpectedly reversed in March and were just 3.2% higher than a year ago, down from 3.4% last […]

Shelter Six:  New Consensus that No More Rate Hikes Needed in 2019

March 25, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

Comments from Federal Reserve Members after last week’s Fed meeting surprised many as the new consensus is that no more short-term rate hikes will be needed this year. The Fed also surprised by announcing that it will slow the pace of its bond repurchase program and end it altogether in September. Fed officials also modestly […]

Shelter Six:  Three Straight Years of More Buyers Than Renters

March 18, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

A vote passed last week extending the Brexit departure date from March 29 to June 30, but there continues to be great uncertainty around if and when the UK will leave the EU. Last week’s inflation news was very positive as the latest Consumer Price Index figures increased less than expected. According to the U.S. […]

Shelter Six:  Wages Continue to Rise

March 11, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

February Wage Growth reached the highest level since April 2009 as average hourly earnings were up 3.2% from January and 3.4% from a year ago.  Rising incomes are always good for home sales. The Unemployment Rate declined from 4% to 3.8%, with much of the reduction due to workers returning to the workforce after the […]

Shelter Six:  National Homeownership Rate Up to 64.8%

March 4, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

Housing demand continues to be strong.  For the third straight year, there was growth in homeownership and 2018 ended up being the strongest year for owner household formation since 2004. National Homeownership Rate up.  The Census Bureau reported last week that the national homeownership rate rose in the 4th Quarter to 64.8%, the highest level […]

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