Shelter Six:  Long-Term Economic Outlook Favorable

February 25, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

The bad news.  Existing Home Sales declined in January for the 6th straight month, were 11% lower than a year ago, and down to the lowest level since November 2015. The reason why.  Home Sales have been affected over the last few months by one-time events like the government shutdown, stock market volatility, and the […]

Shelter Six:  Inflation Flat but Retail Sales Down

February 18, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

Inflation still not a threat.  The most recent major inflation data came in very close to expected levels and had little impact on mortgage rates. Retail Sales way down.  Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of all economic activity in the U.S., so Retail Sales figures are a key indicator. December Retail Sales figures were […]

Shelter Six:  GDP Forecasts Solid for U.S. but Down in Europe

February 11, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

1. Although the 2019 forecast for U.S. GDP remains around 2.5%, global GDP has emerged as a key economic concern early in the new year. 2. Last week, 2019 GDP forecasts were sharply reduced for Europe (1.9% to 1.3%), Germany (1.8% to 1.1%), and the UK (1.7% to 1.2%). 3. A major concern over the […]

Shelter Six:  Many Now Projecting Fewer Rate Hikes in 2019

February 4, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

1. As expected, the Fed did not increase short-term rates last week. Not expected, however, were comments from Fed members that point to fewer Fed rate hikes in 2019. 2. The Fed is now also considering selling fewer Treasuries and mortgage-back securities than previously indicated, which would go a long way in helping keep mortgage […]

Shelter Six:  Partial Government Shutdown Temporarily Ends

January 28, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

1. After 35 days, the longest US government shutdown in history ended on Friday but with only a temporary three-week agreement. 2. This is still great news for 800K government employees returning to work this week and finally getting paid, but plenty of uncertainty remains around what will happen past February 15. 3. The Mortgage […]

Shelter Six: IRS Resumes Providing Income Verifications

January 21, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

1. One key part of the government shutdown is over as the IRS has resumed providing tax transcripts for mortgage applications, thanks to efforts of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). 2. MBA advocacy is also responsible for the resumption of flood insurance policies, which FEMA had halted at the beginning of the shutdown. 3. Last […]

Shelter Six:  Mortgage Business as Usual Despite Government Shutdown

January 14, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

1. As we enter the fourth week of the partial government shutdown, the mortgage business has been mostly unaffected but concerns around FHA, verifying income, and funding all loom. 2. The shutdown is causing delays in the release of some government economic reports, which are coming out more sporadically than normal. 3. Good news on […]

Shelter Six:  Despite Shutdown, Mortgage Business Still Closing Loans

January 7, 2019 by · Leave a Comment

1. As the partial government shutdown enters its third week, the mortgage business continues to function and close loans. 2. Conforming and VA financing have not been impacted but FHA is working with a limited staff and, as things get busier, there could be delays with FHA closings. 3. Also, a prolonged shutdown could soon […]

Shelter Six:  Economic Forecast Points to a Strong 2019

December 31, 2018 by · Leave a Comment

1. Economically, 2019 is going to be another year of positive growth for GA. According to UGA’s Terry School of Business, look for GA to outperform the U.S. as a whole for the 6th straight year. 2. The GA economy has been expanding for roughly nine years and is presently well-balanced and, absent a full-blown […]

Shelter Six:  Fed Bumps Rates up .25%

December 24, 2018 by · Leave a Comment

1. As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds Rate by .25% last week.  Fed officials now expect two rate hikes in 2019, one less than previously forecasted. 2. The most recent inflation data revealed that inflation is still rising but continues to be below the Fed’s stated target level of 2%. 3. The […]

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