Shelter Six:  Rates Hold Steady Despite Strong Jobs Report

June 7, 2021 by · Leave a Comment 

The economy gained 559K jobs in May, a little less than expected but more than double the level from April.

The Unemployment Rate is now down to 5.8% nationally.

Average Hourly Earnings, an indicator of wage growth, were a very strong 2% higher than a year ago.

Even with May’s solid job gains, the economy still has about 7M jobs fewer than it did before the pandemic, which is why the Fed has been moving slowly to tighten monetary policy.

The Fed meets again next week and there is concern that there will be talk of slowing down the level of bond purchases, which could cause rates to move up quickly.

One other economic report worth mentioning, the National Services Index increased to the strongest level on record last week.

Rate Update

Mortgage rates continue to hold steady. Mortgage News Daily’s Purchase 30-Year Fixed-Rate starts this week at 3.13%.

This Week

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due out Thursday. CPI is a widely followed monthly inflation report that looks at the price change for goods and services.

Shelter Six:  Inflation Takes Off as Economy Reopens

May 31, 2021 by · Leave a Comment 

Reduced economic activity during the pandemic over the last year caused a large decline in inflation that was a key reason mortgage rates moved and stayed so low.

Now that the economy is reopening, inflation is really taking off and hitting the highest levels seen in decades.

Only time will tell how sustainable the rise in inflation will be, but last week key Fed members gave a reassuring message that they believe the price gains will prove temporary.

April New Home Sales were down nationally 6% from March and have flattened out in a range of 850k to 950k units per month.

April Pending Home Sales moved back to pre-covid levels falling 4.4% from March, although they were up 52% over last year’s low pandemic figures.

The median new home price is up nationally to $372,400, 20% higher than last year at this time.

Rate Update

Mortgage rates were flat last week as Mortgage News Daily reports the Conforming Purchase 30-Year Fixed-Rate decreased slightly to finish the week at 3.12%.

This Week

The ISM National Manufacturing Index is due out on Tuesday, the ISM National Services Index on Thursday, and Employment figures on Friday.

Shelter Six:  Home Prices Jump 19% Over Last Year

May 24, 2021 by · Leave a Comment 

April Existing Home Sales fell unexpectedly 3% from March, but were 34% higher than a year ago and 11% higher than April 2019.

The Median Existing-Home Price jumped 19% from last year to a record level of $341,600.

The number of homes for sale was 21% lower than a year ago and represents just a 2.4-month supply nationally.

April Housing Starts fell 10% from March, but March Housing Starts were at the strongest level since 2006 and April starts were 67% higher than a year ago.

April Building Permits were up slightly from March and 61% higher than a year ago.

The National Assoc of Home Builders reports that builder confidence was unchanged in May from April and still near all-time high level.

Rate Update

Mortgage rates were flat last week, and Mortgage News Daily’s Conforming 30-Year Fixed-Rate starts the week off at 3.16%.

This Week

New Home Sales will be released on Tuesday, Pending Home Sales on Thursday, and the Core PCE Price Index on Friday.

Shelter Six:  Shelter Relaunching Bank Statement Loan

May 16, 2021 by · Leave a Comment 

Fannie Mae’s latest National Housing Survey indicated that 67% of respondents viewed the present as a good time to sell a home, up 8% from March.

Hot off the reopening of the economy, the April Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped .8% from March, well above the consensus forecast of .2%.

April Retail Sales were flat, which was actually fantastic news since the March figures were so strong.

Great news for self-employed buyers as there is again a mortgage alternative that does not require tax returns nor literally any traditional income documentation.

Shelter’s “SmartSelf” program allows self-employed buyers’ income to be calculated exclusively from bank statement deposits rather than tax returns.

The program requires only 10% down with no PMI, credit scores as low as 620, up to 15 financed properties, and a Bankruptcy or Foreclosure as recent as only two years ago.

Rate Update

Mortgage rates pushed higher last week as a reaction to stronger-than-expected inflation news.  Mortgage News Daily’s Conforming 30-Year Fixed-Rate starts the week off at 3.14%.

This Week

It will be a very light week for economic data.  Housing Starts will be released on Tuesday and Existing Home Sales on Friday.

Shelter Six:  Mortgage Rates Hit Lowest Point in 3 Months

May 10, 2021 by · Leave a Comment 

The economy added 266K jobs in April, which would normally be considered massive, only that 1M were expected this month.

The shortage was due to mismatches in job openings and available workers, distorted seasonal adjustments, and temporary supply chain disruptions.

The Unemployment Rate increased from 6.0% to 6.1%.

Average Hourly Earnings, an indicator of wage growth, rose .7% from March and .3% from last year, well above the consensus for a flat reading.

According to the National Association of Home Builders, rising lumber prices have added $35,872 to the price of an average new single-family home.

Great news for mortgage rates, Fed Vice Chair Clarida commented that he doesn’t think now is the right time to begin talking about scaling back the Fed’s bond purchase program.

Rate Update

Mortgage rates are now down to the best levels since late February as Mortgage News Daily reports that the Conforming 30-Year Fixed-Rate dropped to 3.02% last week.

This Week

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will come out on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Friday.

Shelter Six:  Pending Home Sales Up in March

May 3, 2021 by · Leave a Comment 

Pending Home Sales stopped a 4-month slide and rose 2% in March and 23% year-over-year.

The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose a whopping 12% in February after increasing 11.2% in January.

1st Quarter GDP rose at an annualized rate of 6.4%, which was the second-best reading since 2003, behind only the 3rd Quarter of last year.

More flexible policies due to the pandemic that allowed for exterior-only appraisals and more flexible employment verifications are coming to an end this month.

When there has not been a recent sale in the subject property’s subdivision, new appraisal flexibilities allow 2 pending sales from the subdivision to be used instead.

National Guard Members who were full-time active service for at least 90 total days, with at least 30 being consecutive, are now eligible for VA loans.

Rate Update

Rates were unchanged last week as the Fed calmed fears by making no policy changes nor providing any indication of when its bond purchase program will end.

This Week

The ISM National Manufacturing Index is due out on Monday, the ISM National Services Index on Wednesday, and Employment figures on Friday.

Shelter Six:  Median Home Price Surges to All-Time High

April 26, 2021 by · Leave a Comment 

Nationally, March New Home Sales rose 21% from February and 67% from last year, setting a post-recession high by topping 1M units.

March Existing-Home Sales, which make up about 90% of the market, declined for the second straight month and were 4% lower than February, but still up 12% from last year.

The March median existing-home price was 17% higher than a year ago hitting a new record of $329,100, the fastest pace of annual price appreciation on record.

Nationally, home inventory rose 4% in March from February and is up to a 2.1-month supply.

Recent strong economic data has led Fannie Mae to increase its forecast of GDP for the rest of 2021 to 6.8% growth by the Fourth Quarter (up from 6.6% in last month’s forecast).

The Mortgage Bankers Association revised 2021 forecast for purchase originations forecasts an increase of 16.4% this year to a new record of $1.67 Trillion.

Rate Update

Rates dropped last week to the lowest point in two months as the Mortgage News Daily’s Conforming Purchase 30-Year Fixed-Rate dropped to 3.12%.

This Week

The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday.  First Quarter GDP will be released on Thursday and the Core PCE Price Index on Friday.

Shelter Six:  Low Housing Inventory Being Aided by Strong New Construction

April 19, 2021 by · Leave a Comment 

Nationally, March Housing Starts jumped a stronger-than-expected 19% from February to the fastest pace since 2006.

Building Permits increased nearly 3% to 1.77M units, reflecting a quick snapback from the weather-induced downturn in February.

With such strong housing metrics, it is not surprising that Homebuilder Confidence continues to hover around all-time highs.

Consumers, armed with fresh stimulus, robust savings, and pent-up demand were out in full force in March as Retail Sales figures jumped nearly 10% following a decline of 2.7% in February.

March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.6% higher than a year ago, up from 1.7% last month, and the largest annual rate of increase since August 2018.

Surprisingly, rates fell last week because it is believed that the stimulus checks were the catalyst for such strong Retail Sales figures, and that the high inflation is temporary and will settle back down in a few months.

Rate Update

Rates have spent most of April gradually dropping lower. Mortgage News Daily’s Conforming Purchase 30-Year Fixed-Rate fell from 3.29% to 3.18% last week.

This Week

It will be a light week for economic data with Existing Home Sales being released on Thursday and New Home Sales on Friday.

Shelter Six:  Economy Hitting on All Cylinders Right Now

April 12, 2021 by · Leave a Comment 

A deeper dive into the massive 916K new jobs added in March indicates that 110K of them were in construction, which could really help with the home inventory shortage.

Also promising is a Fannie Mae survey showed the number of homeowners indicating that it is a “good time to sell” surged to the highest level since before the pandemic.

The economy can be divided up into manufacturing and service sectors, and both are really hitting on all cylinders right now.

It was already reported that manufacturing surged to the strongest level since 1983, and now the service sector is up to the highest level since the data was first tracked in 1997.

Jumbo now only requires 10% down payment up to a $1M loan with a 680 credit score, or up to a $1.5M loan with a 720 credit score.

VA is the first to discontinue the more lenient temporary COVID policies that allowed for exterior-only appraisals and VOE waivers within 10 days of closing.

Rate Update

Mortgage rates fell last week to the lowest level in a month. Mortgage News Daily’s Conforming Purchase 30-Year Fixed-Rate decreased from 3.39% to 3.29%.

This Week

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will come out on Tuesday, Retail Sales on Thursday, and both Existing Home Sales and Housing Starts on Friday.

Shelter Six:  Job Growth, Manufacturing, and Consumer Confidence Surge

April 5, 2021 by · Leave a Comment 

In March, the economy added 916K news jobs, significantly greater than expected, and the national Unemployment Rate dropped from 6.2% to 6%.

March was also a huge month for manufacturing as they key sector index surged to the highest level since 1983.

U.S. Consumer Confidence jumped to the strongest level since before the pandemic thanks to the vaccine, reopening of the economy, and stimulus checks.

February Pending Home Sales fell 10.6% from January with weakness primarily attributed to a shortage of inventory.

National bans on both foreclosures and evictions have been extended from the end of March to the end of June.

Despite speculation that levels might drop, new HUD Secretary, Marcia Fudge, said that FHA has no short-term plans to change MIP levels.

Rate Update

Mortgage News Daily’s Conforming Purchase 30-Year Fixed-Rate increased slightly from 3.36% to 3.39% last week.

This Week

The ISM Services Index will come out on Monday and the PPI inflation data on Friday.

Next Page »